Liam Lawson is producing the strongest campaign of his Formula 1 career and heads into the shutdown with no idea what 2027 holds. He expects to find out shortly.
"Oh, me personally? I actually have no idea," Lawson told PlanetF1.com and other accredited media. "I think that stuff, that conversation is normally around summer break. So I'm sure there'll be discussions around that."
His half-season stands up to scrutiny: 43 points against rookie team-mate Arvid Lindblad's 23, with only three blank weekends. It is a different driver from the one promoted to Red Bull last year and removed after two races.
Racing Bulls boss Alan Permane has not hedged when asked about him. "Liam has been amazing this year, honestly," Permane said. "We talk a lot about Arvid, and rightly so, but Liam had a very difficult start. [...] He's totally focused, he's still very fast, he takes opportunities when they arise, he doesn't make mistakes and he's doing a fantastic job."
The complication is a 19-year-old winning everything below. Nikola Tsolov leads Formula 2 with six victories, among them the first three-in-a-row streak in the category's history across the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone. His 20-point margin over Alpine's Gabriele Mini would, if held anywhere in the top three, clear the 40-point Super Licence requirement on its own.
Racing Bulls CEO Peter Bayer rejected the claim that Tsolov already has Lawson's seat, telling Sky F1: "Those are just rumours. He's doing a brilliant job and is a huge talent whom we naturally have on our radar. But we've only had seven races so far, and Liam and Arvid are doing just as brilliant a job. So it's not even on the cards at the moment."
Tsolov's version is the same. "Nothing yet, unfortunately," he told Sky F1 when asked what he had been told. "But it's still early days. I think we need to get through the summer break. I need to keep doing what I'm doing. I have no doubt that if everything goes the same way, I surely would get an opportunity one day."
Sky F1's Anthony Davidson relayed that Racing Bulls engineers had come away impressed from working with him. Tsolov's exposure has been minimal. "I did one day of sim already at the factory," he said. "That's about all I've done. [...] It felt really good. Felt really natural to drive, to be honest, the car. Coming from F2, everything feels quite easy because you have a lot of downforce. But I'm sure it's much more difficult in real life." A test in an older car — the prerequisite for any FP1 run — is pencilled in for the autumn, according to Bayer.
David Coulthard, still a Red Bull ambassador, does not read it as a straight Lawson-or-Tsolov choice. Speaking on the Up To Speed podcast, he floated the idea of placing the Bulgarian at another team instead.
"It's a good problem to have," Coulthard said. "I guess there's always a possibility, if they're happy with the others, that they could help position him somewhere else. [...] But I think, listen for that name, Nikola Tsolov from Bulgaria. Drives very well. Is a great personality out of the car as well."
All of it hinges on the driver nobody can plan around. Max Verstappen's exit clause was live after the Hungarian Grand Prix, but second place left him 60 points short of the runner-up spot his contract is understood to demand, and he now looks likely to stay without saying so. Isack Hadjar has been the most convincing team-mate he has had in years.
Red Bull has four seats and more drivers than that with a legitimate claim. Verstappen moves first; everyone else, Lawson included, moves after him.