Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 drivers' championship, but on the evidence of the Japanese Grand Prix one specific weakness is already threatening to cost Mercedes real points: its race starts.
Former F1 driver and F1 TV analyst Jolyon Palmer has offered the clearest breakdown yet of what is going wrong for the Silver Arrows off the line — and why the same problem is spreading to other Mercedes-powered operations. Looking at the data from Suzuka, Palmer identified Mercedes as the outlier in an otherwise tightly bunched field.
"Mercedes have a big issue with their starts and everyone else is fairly uniform. You've got Mercedes power units in the back of these two McLarens who are both moving forward and Piastri's start was lightning," Palmer said.
Oscar Piastri's getaway at Suzuka has already become a reference lap for start procedure under the 2026 regulations. Running the same Mercedes-built engine as Antonelli, the McLaren rookie delivered what Palmer described as a textbook release.
"This is an absolute showcase in it from Oscar Piastri in the blue. Ice cool as he often seems but on the throttle barely moving. And this is the trick," Palmer said of the Australian's launch.
The contrast with Antonelli could not have been sharper. Starting from pole position — his second on the bounce — the Italian saw the lead disappear in a matter of metres as his rear tyres broke traction off the grid. Palmer identified the fault as a driver-side execution problem, not a hardware issue.
"This one for Kimi is poor execution from the driver here. So, you can hear and see the revs just coming on and then they go on a slightly more as Kimi drops the clutch and it's wheel spinning away," Palmer said.
It is the kind of error that coaching and repetition would normally iron out quickly. But the problem for Mercedes is that the same symptoms are appearing across multiple drivers, which points to the launch software, clutch calibration, or torque map rather than pure rookie nerves.
The consequences are already visible. Antonelli waited 26 starts for his maiden pole and converted the second one at Suzuka — before promptly losing positions off the line. George Russell, meanwhile, has been described as "cautious and tentative" into the opening corners this season, a characteristic that has allowed Lando Norris and others to sweep past with little resistance.
The problem extends beyond the works Mercedes team. Audi, which uses the Mercedes power unit package for its first full F1 season, is suffering a strikingly similar pattern. Gabriel Bortoleto — already a breakout rookie — has repeatedly surrendered grid positions at the lights.
"Gabriel Bortoleto had another bad start in the Audi and that's a team that really has to get on top of these starts as well, like Mercedes," Palmer noted.
The P1 with Matt & Tommy podcast was even more direct in its Audi driver ratings assessment of the issue.
"Audi, my guys, come on. Mercedes, it's all fun and games because it gives us a great race. Audi, come on. We need you to lock in for these starts because it's clearly costing you big points. But there is potential in the car. They've got two great drivers," the hosts argued.
For Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff, the fix cannot come fast enough. Antonelli has built his early championship lead on Saturday performance. If Sunday's opening corner keeps undoing Saturday's work, Piastri and McLaren — running the same engine — will simply overhaul him race by race.
Starts may sound like a small item in the post-race debrief. On current evidence, they could decide the 2026 title.
