The 2026 Formula 1 championship narrative has flipped faster than almost any in recent memory. In January, only 0.9% of fans surveyed by the P1 with Matt & Tommy podcast believed Kimi Antonelli would be world champion this year. The runaway favourite, on 35%, was George Russell. After four races, a new poll on the same channel of 25,000 voters has Antonelli ahead of his team-mate 72% to 28%.
The numbers behind the change are unique. Antonelli, still 19, is the youngest driver ever to lead the world championship. He is the first driver in F1 history to convert his first three pole positions into his first three race wins. Even allowing for the fact that the Mercedes is the fastest car on the grid, the early-season collapse of fan confidence in Russell — and the rise in confidence in Antonelli — is one of the more dramatic momentum swings of the modern era.
'Three races later Kimmy would be leading the championship, he'd won three on the bounce from pole position, George wouldn't have got a podium in the last two — I think people would think you're insane,' Tommy admitted on the latest episode. The hosts walked through the arguments for and against the rookie holding his lead all the way to Abu Dhabi.
In favour: the trajectory is overwhelming. The car is fast, Antonelli has already shown he can win the hard way — Miami's wheel-to-wheel scrap with Lando Norris was earned on merit, even allowing for energy-deployment quirks — and he has recovered from poor starts that have routinely dropped him 20 positions over the four-race opening sweep. The Mercedes engineering culture is also weighted around him in a way that fans have begun to notice.
That last point produced an awkward sub-plot. Mercedes posted a factory visit photograph of Antonelli with the team and the tagline 'every dream needs a team' — the same line used during Lewis Hamilton's departure messaging — without Russell in the frame. A vocal section of Russell's fanbase read it as the team taking sides. The hosts argued it was bad copy rather than a signal, but conceded that the McLaren 'papaya rules' year has left every Mercedes fan hyper-sensitive.
The case against Antonelli is honest. He is still 19. He has never been in a championship fight. Pre-season testing began with an FP3 crash in Melbourne. The pressure that finally caught Oscar Piastri in 2025 — the run from Zandvoort to Abu Dhabi where Lando Norris closed and overhauled him — has never been applied to Antonelli. Whether he can carry a points lead in October is unknown.
Russell, meanwhile, has been written off prematurely. The hosts argued he remains in a good position — the experience advantage is real, his luck in the opening rounds has been poor, and Mercedes is bringing a held-over upgrade package to Canada that should benefit both cars equally. Asked who Russell would back to leave Mercedes if Antonelli kept winning, the hosts saw no scenario in which Russell willingly walked.
Asked to pick on the spot, Tommy still chose Antonelli — but with a meaningful caveat. 'I think Kimmy can do it,' he said. 'But I'm not 72% sure that he's winning the world championship. I think it's still like a 50/50 chance.' For a rookie in his second season, those are the most flattering odds in F1.
